Shaping Policies. Creating Opportunities.

Senate Tax Bill Would Raise Taxes for Many Missourians, Especially in Rural, Poorer Counties

Download the PDF

The United States Senate will soon consider a major revision of the U.S. tax code that would, by 2027, raise federal taxes on many low- and middle-income Missourians.

In order to pay for permanent tax cuts for corporations, the bill would increase personal income tax rates after 2025 based on the “chained consumer price index” (a measure of inflation). As a result, in 2027, the bottom 60 percent of earners (or those with incomes of about $87,000 or less) would see their taxes increase.

Three separate, independent, nonpartisan analyses examined the impact of the bill over time and each found similar results. By 2027 Missourians will pay more overall in federal taxes, at the same time the federal deficit will increase.Richest 1 percent

  • The Congressional Budget Office found that by 2027 those earning up to $75,000 per year would pay more in federal taxes than they do today.
  • Similarly, the U.S. Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation analysis found that by 2027 those with incomes up to $75,000 per year would face increased tax rates, while those with higher incomes would see their average tax rate drop compared to current law.
  • The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that the average taxpayer in the bottom 60% of Missourians would face a tax increase by 2027.

Overall, while a windfall for corporations and the very wealthiest, Missouri taxpayers would actually owe more in federal taxes in 2027 than they do under current law.

It is important to note that income breakdowns in Missouri counties do not directly reflect the breakdowns at the state level. That is, wealthier counties have more than their fair share of wealthy Missourians, and many counties have more residents at the lower end of the income scale.

Most Missourians have incomes below $75,000 annually, and would on average pay higher taxes in 2027. While the top 20 percent would see an overall tax cut, that group is not represented equally across the state.

As the chart on the following page illustrates, many counties, particularly in rural Missouri, have few high earning households. As such, overall tax increases would likely hit those areas especially hard.

    ~Bottom 80%         Top 20%
       <$75,000        >$75,000
# Returns % of Returns # Returns % of Returns
MISSOURI 2,155,310 77% 632,260 23%
Adair County 7,980 84% 1,550 16%
Andrew County 6,180 74% 2,150 26%
Atchison County 1,980 78% 560 22%
Audrain County 8,930 84% 1,720 16%
Barry County 12,200 87% 1,870 13%
Barton County 4,340 86% 720 14%
Bates County 5,750 81% 1,310 19%
Benton County 6,890 88% 980 12%
Bollinger County 4,010 86% 630 14%
Boone County 59,460 76% 18,870 24%
Buchanan County 31,840 81% 7,310 19%
Butler County 15,010 85% 2,560 15%
Caldwell County 3,090 80% 760 20%
Callaway County 15,720 80% 3,870 20%
Camden County 15,990 80% 3,940 20%
Cape Girardeau County 27,220 77% 8,100 23%
Carroll County 3,340 81% 770 19%
Carter County 2,150 90% 250 10%
Cass County 34,600 72% 13,640 28%
Cedar County 4,800 88% 660 12%
Chariton County 2,840 82% 630 18%
Christian County 28,270 77% 8,410 23%
Clark County 2,380 83% 500 17%
Clay County 81,570 71% 33,840 29%
Clinton County 7,270 75% 2,430 25%
Cole County 27,510 76% 8,810 24%
Cooper County 6,040 80% 1,470 20%
Crawford County 8,850 87% 1,310 13%
Dade County 2,740 86% 440 14%
Dallas County 5,680 88% 800 12%
Daviess County 2,950 84% 570 16%
DeKalb County 3,290 80% 820 20%
Dent County 5,090 87% 790 13%
Douglas County 4,430 90% 480 10%
Dunklin County 10,060 87% 1,450 13%
Franklin County 38,640 78% 10,970 22%
Gasconade County 5,940 84% 1,150 16%
Gentry County 2,350 84% 460 16%
Greene County 106,140 81% 24,240 19%
Grundy County 3,650 85% 620 15%
Harrison County 3,330 88% 440 12%
Henry County 7,770 83% 1,620 17%
Hickory County 3,130 90% 360 10%
Holt County 1,730 81% 400 19%
Howard County 3,570 82% 770 18%
Howell County 13,930 87% 2,160 13%
Iron County 3,370 88% 480 12%
Jackson County 260,230 79% 70,880 21%
Jasper County 43,320 84% 8,060 16%
Jefferson County 78,460 74% 27,000 26%
Johnson County 17,680 79% 4,680 21%
Knox County 1,480 89% 190 11%
Laclede County 13,280 88% 1,840 12%
Lafayette County 11,710 79% 3,140 21%
Lawrence County 13,810 85% 2,360 15%
Lewis County 3,560 83% 710 17%
Lincoln County 19,280 77% 5,830 23%
Linn County 4,570 84% 880 16%
Livingston County 5,350 84% 1,050 16%
McDonald County 8,030 88% 1,080 12%
Macon County 5,850 84% 1,090 16%
Madison County 4,330 87% 650 13%
Maries County 3,170 85% 580 15%
Marion County 10,460 82% 2,350 18%
Mercer County 1,320 85% 230 15%
Miller County 9,070 87% 1,370 13%
Mississippi County 4,320 86% 700 14%
Moniteau County 5,450 82% 1,160 18%
Monroe County 3,240 84% 640 16%
Montgomery County 4,270 83% 880 17%
Morgan County 7,400 88% 1,050 12%
New Madrid County 5,830 83% 1,220 17%
Newton County 20,310 82% 4,330 18%
Nodaway County 6,950 81% 1,680 19%
Oregon County 3,380 89% 420 11%
Osage County 4,810 79% 1,280 21%
Ozark County 3,180 89% 380 11%
Pemiscot County 5,520 86% 930 14%
Perry County 7,300 81% 1,760 19%
Pettis County 15,760 85% 2,840 15%
Phelps County 14,710 81% 3,350 19%
Pike County 6,160 84% 1,210 16%
Platte County 31,120 65% 16,680 35%
Polk County 10,200 84% 1,880 16%
Pulaski County 15,390 84% 3,040 16%
Putnam County 1,810 88% 250 12%
Ralls County 3,720 79% 1,000 21%
Randolph County 8,670 84% 1,690 16%
Ray County 8,050 76% 2,480 24%
Reynolds County 2,150 88% 300 12%
Ripley County 4,570 90% 480 10%
St. Charles County 125,090 65% 66,450 35%
St. Clair County 3,150 87% 470 13%
Ste. Genevieve County 6,320 76% 1,960 24%
St. Francois County 21,610 84% 4,140 16%
St. Louis County 355,870 70% 149,000 30%
Saline County 8,270 84% 1,530 16%
Schuyler County 1,540 89% 190 11%
Scotland County 1,840 88% 260 12%
Scott County 14,310 83% 3,010 17%
Shannon County 2,800 92% 250 8%
Shelby County 2,490 85% 430 15%
Stoddard County 10,370 84% 2,000 16%
Stone County 11,470 82% 2,500 18%
Sullivan County 2,430 88% 320 12%
Taney County 21,580 88% 3,080 12%
Texas County 8,170 88% 1,130 12%
Vernon County 7,190 85% 1,270 15%
Warren County 11,820 76% 3,680 24%
Washington County 7,750 88% 1,040 12%
Wayne County 4,100 91% 420 9%
Webster County 12,530 83% 2,480 17%
Worth County 790 85% 140 15%
Wright County 6,230 90% 710 10%
St. Louis City 124,690 85% 21,650 15%
About the Author

Leave a Reply

*

captcha *