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Budget Shortfall of Nearly $240 Million Expected in FY 2019

Based on the recently agreed to Consensus Revenue Estimate,the Missouri Budget Project estimates a $238.8 million shortfall in fiscal year 2019.*


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FY 2018

  • The revised FY 2018 Consensus Revenue Estimate (CRE) calls for general revenue collections of $9.189 billion. In addition to funds lapsed from the previous year and transfers, $9.436 billion is available to support the FY 2018 budget.
  • Existing state obligations total $9,371.8 million, leaving the state an estimated balance of $61.2 million heading into FY 2019.

 

Fiscal Year 2019 Outlook

  • The FY 2019 CRE calls for $9.418 in general revenue collections. Including the balance from FY 2018, transfers, and previous year lapse, the state will have $9.731 billion to fund the FY 2019 budget.
  • This is nearly $240 million short of what’s needed to fund a budget substantively similar to what the legislature passed for FY 2018.
  • Assuming modest inflationary growth of 2.5 percent, $9,969.5 billion would be needed to fund the services the legislature passed, required increases in the K-12 foundation formula, and capital and supplemental appropriations – leaving a $238.8 million shortfall for FY 2019.
  • It is important to note that this shortfall does NOT take into account restoring cuts that were already made in several areas, including home- and community-based services for seniors and Missourians with disabilities or K-12 transportation funds.

 

*  These obligations include the FY 2018 budget, less spending restrictions; capital appropriations & reappropriations; and
estimated supplemental appropriations.

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